Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
